It’s clear that the pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains—a problem the logistics industry will continue to face this year. A high degree of flexibility and close cooperation between all parties in the supply chain is required to be well prepared to respond to the crisis and, hopefully, to a post-COVID era.
Investments in transport infrastructure, such as those being made on a large scale in the United States, are helping to make ports and airports more efficient, while digitalization and automation are important to optimize logistics processes further.
Not to be forgotten, however, is the human factor. The shortage of labor—not only among truck drivers—shows that efforts are still needed to maintain logistics supply chains. Restructuring supply chains to make them sustainable is yet another challenge.
There remains much work to do for the logistics sector, which has certainly proven its ability to provide flexible and creative solutions.
Global supply chain disruptions, port congestion, capacity shortages, increasing ocean freight rates and an ongoing pandemic have challenged shippers, ports, carriers and logistics providers during the past year.
And looking ahead in 2022, experts estimate that the pressure on global supply chains will continue—and the light at the end of the tunnel is not to be expected until the second half of the year at the earliest.
Above all, the consensus is that the pressure on the ocean freight market will continue in 2022, and freight rates are unlikely to fall back to pre-COVID levels. Capacity problems and congestion in the ports will continue to combine with strong global demand in the consumer goods sector.
Airfreight suffers from strain
The strained supply chains in the wake of the pandemic are also increasingly affecting airfreight growth. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air cargo markets showing slower growth in November 2021.
Supply chain disruptions and capacity constraints affected demand, despite economic conditions remaining favorable for the sector. Because the impact of COVID-19 distorts comparisons between monthly results in 2021 and 2020, comparisons were made to November 2019, which followed a normal demand pattern.
According to IATA, global demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTKs), was up 3.7% compared to November 2019 (4.2% for international operations). This was significantly lower than the 8.2% growth seen in October 2021 (2% for international operations) and in previous months.
Although economic conditions continue to support air cargo growth, supply chain disruptions are slowing growth due to labor shortages, partly due to employees being in quarantine, insufficient storage space at some airports and processing backlogs exacerbated by the year-end rush.
Several key airports, including New York’s JFK, Los Angeles and Amsterdam Schiphol reported congestion. However, retail sales in the United States and China remain strong. In the U.S., retail sales were 23.5% above November 2019 levels, and in China, online sales for Singles’ Day were 60.8% above their 2019 levels.
In the North American region, air cargo growth continues to be driven by strong demand. Carriers there posted an 11.4% increase in international cargo volumes in November 2021 compared to November 2019. This was significantly below October’s performance (20.3%). Supply chain congestion at several key U.S. cargo hubs has affected growth. International capacity was down 0.1% from November 2019.
European carriers saw a 0.3% increase in international cargo volumes in November 2021 compared to the same month in 2019, but this was a significant drop from October 2021 (7.1%). European carriers have been affected by supply chain congestion and localized capacity constraints. International capacity was down 9.9% in November 2021 compared to pre-crisis levels, and capacity on the key Europe-Asia route was down 7.3% during the same period.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their international air cargo volumes increase 5.2% in November 2021 over the same month in 2019—this was only slightly below the previous month’s 5.9% expansion. International capacity in the region eased slightly in November, down 9.5% compared to 2019.
